Interesting data shared with me below. It shows the passage rate of school bonds in Michigan broken down by the election date and whether the bond was a tax increase or a renewal. It covers 149 bond ballot questions over 10 election dates from February 2012 through November 2013.
The data sample is small, but a couple observations given that the Grosse Pointe Public Schools bond proposal is a February election and a millage increase:
- February passage rates are 41% – lower than May and just slightly lower than August equivalents.
- The February 2012 election was also a presidential primary. In that year, the bond passage with tax increase implications was just 25%. The next February had a 56% passage rate with no presidential primary coincidence.
- November passage rates are 3 percentage points lower than February. However, the huge distinction is that the Nov. 2012 passage rate was 11%, which coincided with a presidential election year. In November 2013, there was a 53% passage rate.
Overall, bond elections that result in a tax increase, like GPPSS’ proposal, have a 49% passage rate whereas millage renewals have a much higher 91% pass rate.
One theory would be that for tax increase question, one of the largest determinants of passage is whether any other significant ballot questions coexist. In this February 2014 GPPSS bond election, that is not the case and the odds of passage therefore increase.
